Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 28.666011 30.640330 32.771000 35.257465 38.100656 41.276611 45.130639
2025-11-09 25.250486 27.807019 30.723389 34.348460 38.811403 44.238510 51.528390
2025-11-16 23.068162 25.837376 29.099455 33.311803 38.746540 45.743485 55.857355
2025-11-23 22.122660 25.168845 28.866868 33.821476 40.521763 49.681745 64.056002
2025-11-30 21.125911 24.318665 28.284374 33.752863 41.434550 52.482011 71.145856
2025-12-07 20.171518 23.434380 27.561180 33.385683 41.829617 54.514841 77.434653
2025-12-14 18.934361 22.107784 26.161607 31.957849 40.512965 53.697197 78.514893
2025-12-21 18.395997 21.649558 25.871799 32.035990 41.405221 56.475985 86.959958
2025-12-28 18.018613 21.374631 25.800007 32.401132 42.750277 60.195076 98.553120
2026-01-04 17.318911 20.633488 25.042566 31.698148 42.316784 60.709082 103.269869
2026-01-11 17.106615 20.534733 25.165347 32.305023 44.063166 65.490463 120.356524
2026-01-18 16.801207 20.291329 25.064927 32.555087 45.225708 69.367431 137.397603
2026-01-25 16.272560 19.791181 24.673929 32.494919 46.159378 73.686412 162.094145
2026-02-01 15.545061 18.990886 23.817107 31.651585 45.635352 74.903317 178.588836
2026-02-08 14.876545 18.237897 22.980289 30.760986 44.890515 75.415879 193.433578
2026-02-15 14.614223 18.045162 22.959035 31.201945 46.731291 82.719314 255.709066
2026-02-22 14.249169 17.685215 22.660181 31.142628 47.571440 87.811845 324.726991
2026-03-01 13.850695 17.258350 22.233521 30.824234 47.830694 91.425523 403.363718
2026-03-08 13.262460 16.533541 21.314325 29.582594 45.996498 88.322359 399.706717
2026-03-15 13.013746 16.297500 21.143627 29.650694 46.988866 94.328898 566.917167
2026-03-22 12.836666 16.158775 21.115970 29.968686 48.579163 103.115722 1022.056596
2026-03-29 12.469640 15.724245 20.599034 29.356141 47.966064 103.917097 1328.693409
2026-04-05 12.363734 15.676114 20.696379 29.885024 50.105368 116.370441 10002.390462